Despite an overall calm on the frontlines, a storm was brewing at home. Almost all of Petrograd was gearing up for an uprising. The Empire was still alive, but barely. Having taken years to build, it was collapsing in a matter of days. So-called ‘bread riots’ were spreading, the Church was practically non-existent, and so was the military.

“This is but a pack of hoodlums,” Empress Alexandra Romanova would write to her husband, Nicholas II. “Adolescents roaming the streets, yelling they have nothing to eat." She does not think much of it - certainly not that it was a full-blown revolt.

But by then it was already too late, and Russia had reached a point of no return. Within a matter of one month, first blood was spilt. By that date, 80 percent of the workers had revolted. If the banners had first cried for “Bread!” and “Peace!” they were now reading “To hell with the Monarchy!” Pleas for food had turned to open threats.

The crown struck back. The streets ran with the blood of the rebellion. Petrograd was practically cleaned of revolting masses and public gatherings, and the Monarchy appeared to have won.

Or so it seemed…

Timeline

Germany gives official start to unrestricted submarine warfare. Ultimate underwater warfare unleashed. By that point the Germans already had 105 battle subs, 23 of which were sent to the Mediterranean, another 46 to the North Atlantic and 10 to the Baltics. Another 23 subs were stationed in Belgium and a further three in Istanbul.

Entente alliance conference opens in Petrograd. Delegations gather to discuss consolidated, decisive assault, expect to win war by end of 1917.

US President Woodrow Wilson severs diplomatic relations with Germany. Ambassador James W. Gerard called back to the United States.

A German submarine sinks American grain ship Housatonic off Scilly Islands. Seven more ships will perish that month, with many more to follow later on.

The situation with staple foods worsens. Prices soar. Winter is in full swing, and heavy snow has a devastating impact on railways, and consequently, logistics. This also concerns industrial supplies to the capital. These severed links between Petrograd and the rural areas are thought to have contributed to the upheaval.

Some 60 ships are sunk by the German Navy in the first five days of unrestricted submarine warfare, all belonging to Entente and neutral countries, including one belonging to the United States.

Disruptions with food distribution reach Kiev. There are conflicting reports as to the degree of public knowledge of what was taking place in Petrograd. Some historical sources say that the Kiev command was intercepting all manner of communication from the capital to avert local strife. The local newspapers, particularly the ‘Kievlyanin’, dedicate themselves to covering all manner of topics but the revolt in Petrograd.

Other sources say Kiev was well aware – and that bad news hit Kiev almost as quickly as trouble had started in Petrograd.

This moratorium on information, some say, only lost all meaning later, when the Tsar abdicated his crown in March.

German planes mount an attack on Riga, but are repelled by Russian anti-air defense. Heavy artillery fire is heard around the capital of present-day Latvia.

By May 1915, most of Latvia was engulfed in the war, and German forces were progressing toward Riga. In the course of the two-year period until 1917, volunteer units of the Latvian Riflemen are formed to repel the attacker. They are incorporated into the Russian defense effort, and suffer heavy casualties in the period from December 1916 to January 1917, during the Christmas Battles. The Russians had tried to help their allies in Verdun by lessening the pressure on them and attracting the Germans instead to the Riga front. But because of the freezing conditions and impeded movement, the Russian Army could not reach German fortifications. The Riflemen were then sent to surprise the Germans in late December – who thought the Russians would be celebrating Christmas. Despite notable gains, the Germans, by January, were receiving many reinforcements, and Russian counterattacks failed repeatedly.

One important thing to note about the Riga front: the Latvians had suffered such heavy losses under Russian command that it led to an atmosphere of resentment toward tsar Nicolas II and his generals – and consequently, support for the Bolsheviks, which were advocating an end to the war.

By February 8, neutral players one by one declare their opposition to the Germans’ unrestricted submarine warfare order. By now, the governments of Spain, the Netherlands and Brazil lodge official complaints with Berlin.

Over in Russia, the black market is awash with outbound tickets.

Many are struck with the flu amid a widespread epidemic.

The UK government restricts the use of products suitable for human consumption as animal feed, while a new batch of farmers is being trained to replace those who have left to fight in the war.

Meanwhile, the French government gives the order to use 15 percent corn or barley wheat in the baking of bread – a situation that has already been felt for a while in Germany.

Over in Russia, 10 senior members of Russia’s Central Military-Industrial Committee (MIC) are arrested on allegations of revolutionary activities.

Moscow is experiencing a meat shortage. There is word that, over in Siberia, plenty of slaughtered animal carcasses are just lying there at the train station, ready for transportation, and will go bad at the first sign of a thaw. Word in Petrograd and Moscow is that the government doesn’t care to find a solution to the problem. Agricultural groups and their ministers would appeal to the Duma, but Nicholas’ government kept denying them an audience, and thus, the issue remained open.

Petrograd rolls out food austerity measures: the baking of cakes and pastries stops. Flour supplies are low.

Nicolas is worried about the legislature, which is growing more and more opposed to his rule, and is being pressured by Duma chairman Rodzyanko to sack  interior minister Protopopov. Rodzyanko writes in a letter to the tsar that if this is not done, “Barely three weeks will pass, and you will have a revolution on your hands so powerful it will completely obliterate you and your rule.”

These sentiments are echoed by Nicholas II’s brother-in-law, Grand Duke Alexander Mikhailovich. Alexander pressures the Tsar in very direct terms to cave to the legislators’ demands, but Nicholas remains adamant, and Alexander tries to persuade his brother, Grand Duke Nicholas Mikhailovich, that Nicholas II and wife Alexandra Fyodorovna “will only listen to force.”

“We either sit here and do nothing and wait for Russia to be consumed by shame and perish, or to save Russia by taking heroic measures.” With these words, Nicholas Mikhailovich essentially means taking his brother Alexander’s advice to the Tsar: to give power to those in whom the people can currently put their trust, as well as to dissolve the Duma entirely.

“This is but a pack of hoodlums,” Empress Alexandra Romanova writes to her husband, Nicholas II. “Adolescents roaming the streets, yelling they have nothing to eat.”

Her words are echoed by someone diametrically opposed to her views, yet singing the same tune: “To call this a Revolution! Just give them some bread, and the whole movement will cease to be.” These words belong to the head of the Central Committee of the Russian Social-Democrat Workers Party, Alexander Shlyapnikov – a Bolshevik.

Both are gravely mistaken, however. For they underestimate just how little ability the government now has to fulfill even the most basic demands. The mayor of Petrograd, Alexander Balk, writes a letter to Prime Minister Nikolay Golitsin: “Over the past week, flour deliveries came up to 5,000 poods a day, when the norm should be 60,000,” that is one-twelfth of the regular amount. A Russian ‘pood’ is approximately 16.4kgs (36.1 pounds). By February 23, the quantity of flour would fall to 300,000 poods – enough for barely a week, given Petrograd’s consumption rate of 1,276 poods per day.

Thousands of people form long queues in the crackling cold. Many bread and milk stands aren’t selling more than one or two poods per person. Families are having to show up in their entirety to prove the number of people. Things would only get worse from here.

The Russian government agrees to France’s conditions of post-war settlement: Alsace-Lorraine annexation from Germany, Saarland special status.

The British inform the Japanese that they will support their claims to German possessions north of the Equator. The Japanese are expected to offer similar protections to British possessions to the south.

Around that time, under the command of General Sergey Semyonovich Khabalov, a special military district is set up in Petrograd to quell potential uprisings and revolts. Khabalov had been instrumental in crushing the Revolution of 1905, so he is entrusted by Nicholas with taking care of the situation that is quickly spiralling out of control.

But Khabalov – an inexperienced and foolhardy commander – would prove to be the wrong person for the job, and is thought by historians to have been given too much elbow room by the panicking Nicholas.

In four days, Nicholas leaves Petrograd, receiving assurances from Internal Minister Protopopov that the situation in the capital is completely under control.

Commander of the Petrograd military district, general Khabalov, cautions citizens against taking part in the protest.

The Interior Ministry is preparing a draft manifest declaring the dissolution of the State Duma.

Authorities expect an escalation of the situation in Petrograd in a week, on February 27, the first day of a State Duma session.

Entente Alliance representatives agree to start an offensive in April. Russian command expects the reorganization of troops to be over by May 1.

Entente Alliance conference in Petrograd ends. 

The Interior Ministry is laying out a plan for maintaining peace and order in Petrograd if the State Duma is dissolved.

Emperor Nicholas II refuses the proposal to dissolve State Duma.

By the 25th, most of Petrograd’s industrial enterprises are shut down due to the angry revolts. People are no longer listening to Nicholas’ decrees, and break them by gathering on the streets en masse. By varying historical accounts, 80,000 to 250,000 people are now on strike. Other accounts put the final number of rioters at 305,000.

Over in the Duma, Rodzianko asks Chairman of the Council of Ministers Nikolai Golitsyn to resign, as Foreign Minister Nikolai Pokrosvky suggests disbanding the entire government.

The city’s fabled Nevsky Prospekt is now awash with angry people, leading to a decision by the Tsar to take decisive action – steps that will be remembered in history as one of the defining moments of the Revolution: he writes to Khabalov to disperse the crowds with gunfire.

Khabalov, who commands the Petrograd military, issues the order that leads to many dead and wounded. The shooting was reportedly in response to shots being fired by members of the crowd.

By the evening of the 26th, the capital is sealed by Khabalov’s forces, with some thinking the rebellion had at last been crushed. Bridges over the Neva are raised.

But people make their way to the center by traversing the ice to where the bulk of Khabalov’s troops were now waiting. Bloody battles continue; over on Znamenskaya Ploshad, around 40 rioters are shot dead in clashes.

Mass arrests are taking place: up to 150 on the night of 25-26 February, including Anna Elizarova –Ulyanova – Lenin’s elder sister.

Things take an unexpected turn. A non-commissioned officer of the Volynsky company shoots dead his superior. But instead of someone taking over command, the officers scram. Nobody wants to fight the uprising anymore. This effectively means the army has now begun to side with the revolt.

Historians will draw parallels between the behavior of the officers who, on that day, had lost faith in their guiding principles, and the behavior of the ruling elites themselves, who would be accused of weak and cowardly decision making at a critical moment, which finally tipped the balance in favor of the uprising.

The Empire may have been alive, but no one was in control of it anymore. The Volynsky company’s rebellion would be the moment an all-out armed uprising by the officers finally started. Several companies joined the rebellion in a matter of hours.

“Autocracy has rotted away,” Lenin’s famous words stated. At the same time, Nicholas II would fire off his own accusations: “Rampant betrayal, cowardice and treachery.”

An Interim Committee at the Duma, chaired by Rodzyanko, holds a session, in the absence of an actual Duma. Alexander Fyodorovich Kerensky says the unthinkable, openly declaring that “The historical objective of the Russian people at this point is the total and immediate annihilation of the system reminiscent of the Middle Ages… How can legal means be an adequate response to those who have used the law as an instrument of torture on the people? Those who break the law can only be dealt with one way – by being physically removed.”

Amid mass hysteria, the Winter Palace is overrun by members of the uprising. Nicholas II – who had already come back to the capital days earlier, thinking the uprising had been quelled – attempts to leave the city, but most of the railway stations are now under the control of the rebels.